Driving to Increase, Predicts AAA

Since the economy went south, traffic has decreased. (And maybe people started driving less even before the recession.) But according to the latest predictions from AAA, the auto club, that equation may no longer apply, at least when it comes to the first big summer travel weekend this year.

Based on its latest travel report released this week, which included a survey of 2,700 households, AAA projects that the total number of Americans expected to travel on vacation this Memorial Day weekend will increase by 1.5 percent over last year. The estimate is based on the number of people planning to travel 50 miles or more from home, raising the total number of vacationers from 31.9 million last year to 32.4 million this holiday. But not all those people will be getting behind the wheel.

AAA says about 83 percent of those planning to travel on the long weekend will take a car. That is still 27 million people who plan to hit the highway for the holiday, but it’s not a big jump over last year, when 26.3 million drove.

The club cites the high gas prices of last summer, topping out at more than $4 a gallon, and deteriorating economy as the main reasons for the decline in 2008. With gas prices now hovering around $2.25 nationally, AAA doesn’t expect that drivers will see prices rise above $2.50 on Memorial Day. Hence, the more optimistic estimates. (If you’re planning on packing the kids in the car, AAA has some safety reminders and tips here. )

So does this mean you will be sitting in more traffic tie-ups heading to the beach this holiday? It depends on where you live. A breakdown of the AAA report shows a sharp surge in driving vacationers in New England, for example, where traffic may increase by 8.5 percent. On the West Coast, by contrast, the number of people driving is expected to drop by 2.1 percent.

Also, the report says, more travelers on the road means more tourism dollars, which in turn should help the roughly one in seven Americans employed in the travel and hospitality business.